I knew we had a short supply of homes in the Laguna West-Lakeside area, but we are getting seriously low. Using our Sacramento Multiple Listing Service data, I found that we have a .7 month supply of homes for sale in the 95758 area. That is low. For a little perspective, a three month supply of homes for sale is generally considered the marker between a buyer's and seller's market. So given that this is a market with so many distressed sales, is this a buyer's or seller's market? The MLS sales data shows a slight uptick in sales price, but the average price of homes sold really is a lagging indicator. Homes sold were entered into contract at last 30 days ago. If the transaction was a short sale, which is approximately 33% of our market, the data could be months old.
I also looked at listing price to get an idea of the direction of the market. This number is also not perfect because homes sometimes sale for less than the listing price, but last year homes were listed at an average price of $209,000. This May, the number has jumped to $291,000. Now, add in that the average days on market for a home is shrinking and the average listing price to sales price in May (both lagging indicators) was 100% and things become interesting.
The numbers seem to show the same is going on in the 95757 and 95624 areas so it looks like all of Elk Grove is experiencing the same market change. There are multiple offer situations all over and these offers come in very quickly. Also, a house just came on the market in my Shelter Cove neighborhood. It is on the lake and it is a beautiful home, but there was nothing in our area to support the listing price. What happened? It went pending in days and I understand that there are two back up offers near the asking price. I think we are going to be surprised in the next few months with the rise in sales prices in the Elk Grove area. It may not feel like it yet, but this is a seller's market.
Of course, most of this is just speculation on my part and, really, my name is nobody in the real estate community, but we all get to have opinions, right? :o)
If you are in the market for a large home in a gated community, there is a home in my South Shore neighborhood in Lakeside that will soon be available. It is a foreclosure, but is in good shape. The home is 4000 square feet and has 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. There is a pool, spa and there is a place for your boat. The best feature, though, is that you would be my neighbor ;o). This property is not listed yet, but there is a for sale sign indicating it is coming soon. Let me know if you are interested and I will keep you posted.
Here is a home in the Lakeside area of South Shore. It just so happens to be my house. Please excuse the construction. We have a new fence being installed.
Raymond Henson GRI, CDPE, e-PRO, CNE
Hughes Real Estate
1101 Fulton Ave
Sacramento, CA 95825